2011年10月4日星期二

With Chris Christie not running for president, will Mitt Romney or Rick Perry prosper?

With New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie forgoing a run for the Republican presidential nomination, two questions hold the key to the future of the GOP race: Can Mitt Romney finally expand his support within the party, and can Rick Perry bounce back?
As the primary season kicks into gear, Republican presidential hopefuls are hitting the road and meeting voters in Iowa , New Hampshire and other early primary states.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie says he will not run for president in 2012. Heavily courted by Republican donors, he says, "I have a commitment to New Jersey that I simply will not abandon."

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie says he will not run for president in 2012. Heavily courted by Republican donors, he says, "I have a commitment to New Jersey that I simply will not abandon."

Christie’s announcement Tuesday that he will not join the race, while not unexpected, probably ended a long period in which many Republicans spent as much time dreaming about a candidate who wasn’t in the contest as focusing on those who were. Only former Alaska governor Sarah Palin remains as a possible late entrant, and time and interest in her candidacy are quickly running out.

“The campaign just got a whole lot more real,” said Todd Harris, a Republican strategist. “No more hypotheticals about this or that person swooping in to save the day. The field is set, and it’s not going to change. The race has been frozen in place while everyone waited to see what Christie was going to do. Now we know, and it’s time to resume the clock.”

The comings and goings of potential candidates have obscured what has long been the reality of the Republican race: that it has been two contests in one. The first was all about Romney and whether he could persuade a reluctant party to embrace his candidacy. So far he hasn’t. That highlights the importance of the second contest, which is the campaign among the other candidates to become the principal alternative to Romney.

The courtship of Christie spoke to a wider problem for the Republicans. At a time when they view President Obama as extremely vulnerable, they are caught up in an internal debate about which candidate most expresses the heart and soul of conservatism and whether that person is best equipped to win a general election.

That has produced fluctuations in support for contenders who appear to speak for the tea party activists, starting with Rep. Michele Bachmann (Minn.), followed by Perry and more recently by businessman Herman Cain. But the gyrating polls highlight the degree to which the Republican race, though just three months away from the first votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, is still taking shape.

Christie’s decision was welcome news for Romney and Perry. Romney will now have a fresh opportunity to consolidate support among established Republicans who have been keeping their options open. The former Massachusetts governor also will have a freer hand to pursue some major fundraisers who have stayed on the sidelines looking for a seemingly more appealing candidate.

There was at least one immediate dividend on Tuesday. Ken Langone, a Home Depot co-founder and GOP fundraiser who was the prime mover behind the effort to persuade Christie to run, signed up with Romney. Also joining was Georgette Mosbacher, longtime GOP fundraiser and co-chairman of the Republican National Committee’s finance committee. Others appear ready to jump aboard in the next few days.

Perry’s campaign, which started quickly, has hit a rough patch. He has fallen into a tie for second place with Cain in the latest Washington Post-ABC News poll. Christie’s decision offers the Texas governor a better chance to regroup and emerge as Romney’s main challenger once the primaries and caucuses begin in January and the voters start to winnow the field.

没有评论:

发表评论